Vantage Point: Declining enrollment imposes tough choices 

Approximately half of California’s school districts are now facing declining enrollment. In some cases the decline has been gradual and expected. In others it has been dramatically greater than anticipated. Whether the decline is because of fewer births, the high cost of homes, the movement of families out of state, increased enrollment in charter schools or fewer new immigrants, the impact on programs and budgets can be significant.

While the largest losses have been in urban districts, losing even 10 students can have a huge impact on small districts’ budgets. With the expectation that there will be little new money this year for schools except cost-of-living adjustments and growth, districts looking at only a modest COLA and no growth will face difficult decisions in an era of increased accountability and rising expectations.

My own county of San Bernardino, one of the fastest-growing areas in the United States in the last decade, reported a countywide enrollment decline of 5,000 students this year. Although some districts are still growing and building new schools, others are looking at closing schools. My own district, the Chaffey Joint Union High School District, opened two new high schools in 2002. Now plans for two additional schools are on hold. In most places, elementary enrollment has been hit the hardest. Enrollments are not expected to increase significantly until 2011, when current newborns through 5-year-olds will be in school.

Unfortunately, costs do not shrink at the same rate as revenues. Equipment, utilities, insurance, maintenance and fuel may decline little, if at all. Unless the decline is dramatic, it may not reduce the need for bus drivers, custodians, nurses or other support staff, although there will be less funding from average daily attendance to finance these positions.

According to the Jan. 3 Los Angeles Times, Santa Ana—the largest school district in Orange County—is looking at eliminating 60 teaching positions. Anticipated retirements may reduce the need for actual layoffs. However, beginning teachers earn less than more senior teachers. When a district is not hiring new teachers or laying off the least experienced, the average cost of the teacher in each classroom increases—especially when step-and-column and anniversary salary hikes add to the increased costs. Also, the investment that districts have made in staff development of new employees is lost when they are let go.

Laying off employees and closing schools are some of the most difficult decisions a school board can make, closely followed by changing boundaries or eliminating programs like sports or music. Yet all of these may become necessary.

There are a few opportunities that can come with declining enrollment. Smaller schools and learning communities can be created. Empty classrooms can be converted to parent centers, teacher resource rooms, tutoring centers or space for collaborative partners. However, these changes still require some resources.

CSBA plans to sponsor legislation on declining enrollment this year. We are interested in hearing your concerns and ideas. We also encourage you to contact your legislators. Point out the problems and challenges that you face—and don’t hesitate to remind them throughout the year.