Forecast Webcast looks at education climate for 2007

More than 100 school board members and administrators participated in the California School Boards Association’s 2007 Forecast Webcast last month in a new, online format that linked audiences in nine county offices of education throughout the state.

Christopher Thornberg, senior economist at UCLA’s Anderson School, assessed future fiscal trends; CSBA Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Affairs Rick Pratt analyzed potential impacts of the governor’s proposed budget on California schools; and CSBA President Kathy Kinley and Executive Director Scott P. Plotkin joined Pratt in a discussion of state and federal issues that will affect public education in 2007.

In past years, people have had to go to Sacramento and San Diego to hear Forecast conference experts analyze the big economic, budgetary and policy issues that would impact public schools in the year ahead. The new Webcast format makes it easier for school board members in all regions of California to take advantage of what Forecast has to offer by cutting costs and travel time.

Forecast speakers delivered their presentations in Sacramento, and their remarks and images were transmitted over the Internet from a state-of-the-art studio at the Sacramento County Office of Education to audiences in Sacramento, Humboldt, Riverside, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, Shasta, Sonoma and Tulare. Participants in all the satellite locations had the opportunity to submit questions.

This was a wonderful opportunity for our board members to get to this workshop,” said Clifton Anderson, superintendent of the Southern Humboldt Joint Unified School District in Garberville. “It’s 235 miles to Sacramento, and the drive typically takes more than four hours one way. This way we were able to stay in the district, attend the presentation at the Humboldt County Office of Education and then get back to work instead of spending the entire day traveling.”

UCLA’s Thornberg, whose economic predictions at previous Forecast conferences have consistently proved accurate, continued to warn about a sustained downturn in the state’s overheated real estate market.

The “bubble has burst,” he said, predicting that the fallout will depress personal and state income throughout fiscal 2007-08. Schools will continue to be affected by changes in the housing market, he said.

“We’re not building rental units for low-income families,” Thornberg explained. Because families with young children are increasingly living in crowded situations, parents aren’t able to give students the support they need at home so that they can thrive at school, he said. “The state needs to encourage construction of low-end housing.”

Thornberg, Pratt and Plotkin agreed with the recent Legislative Analyst’s Office report that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2007-08 state budget proposal is based on overly optimistic predictions that revenue will jump more than 7 percent and expenses will increase by only 1 percent. Neither projection is likely, making the governor’s budget, as Pratt said, “very, very shaky.”

Pratt and Plotkin said they were also unhappy with the governor’s “manipulation” of several program allocations that may reduce Proposition 98 funds to schools. The overall budgetary outlook for schools is “mediocre to bad,” Pratt said, but is not as dire as it has been in past years.

During a panel discussion with CSBA President Kinley and Pratt, Plotkin expressed his concern that the governor largely ignored public education at his inauguration and in his State of the State address.

“Fully funding Proposition 98 does not bring California from the bottom of the pack when it comes to per-pupil funding,” Plotkin said. “I am very disappointed that the governor has not made any mention of adequacy,” a shorthand reference to providing sufficient funds for a quality statewide public school system. The governor’s own Commission on Education Excellence has ordered some 20 research studies on adequacy. Preliminary results are expected soon, making the topic especially timely.

Plotkin also said he is also worried that the recent resignation of Education Secretary Alan Bersin, an advocate of tackling the adequacy question, is another indication that the governor has little interest in promoting the issue. The education secretary accompanied the governor to Mexico late last year, Plotkin said, expecting to discuss the committee’s adequacy work and other issues. Instead, “Bersin returned from Mexico and resigned,” Plotkin observed. “I’m not sure what signal that sends, but it’s not a good one.”

If Schwarzenegger has lost interest in the adequacy issue, CSBA will have to continue the work without his leadership, Plotkin added. The association is helping to lead a public engagement campaign to find workable strategies for increasing California’s investment in K-12 public schools, funded by two major grants from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.